Makeup’s Shelf Is Softening, But Some Categories Are Holding Stronger Than Others

Agency (communication / marketing / trends / digital/AI)

Makeup is one of beauty’s most dynamic categories, shaped by a constant cycle of new product launches and shifting consumer trends. With more brands and products competing for attention, understanding where demand is actually moving requires looking beyond the performance of the category as a whole.

Weekly sales data can provide a more detailed view of those shifts, showing how individual categories are gaining or losing ground and how changes in pricing and promotional activity may be influencing performance.

Recent data from DAASH Intelligence shows a slowdown across makeup. Across Sephora, Ulta and Amazon combined, makeup units declined 4.5% over the 13 weeks ending August 15 compared with the prior 13-week period, while average price declined 3.7% to $23.08.

The pressure was particularly pronounced in complexion. Foundation experienced the largest share loss of any makeup category, with units declining 11.2% and share falling 0.5 percentage points. Its average price, however, declined only 2.1% to $39.63. Foundation remains the largest makeup category by sales in the panel, accounting for 11.4% of sales despite representing 6.2% of units.

Mascara showed greater resilience. It was the largest makeup category by unit share at 9.6%, gaining 0.2 share points during the period. Units declined 2.5%, compared with the broader makeup category’s 4.5% decline, while average price decreased just 0.5% to $20.71.

Lipstick was another category to gain ground, with units increasing 1.1% and share rising 0.3 points, the largest share gain in makeup during the period. However, average price declined 5.4%, and Ulta began a buy-one-get-one-free promotion on select lip products on August 12, covering the final week of the 13-week window. The overlap makes promotional activity an important factor when evaluating the category’s performance.

Seeing these shifts in real time helps brands separate category-wide movement from what's happening within individual segments. Rather than relying solely on longer-term reporting, weekly data can reveal where share is moving, which categories are outperforming the wider market and when pricing or promotions coincide with changes in sales.

DAASH utilizes a proprietary AI model that turns millions of market signals into weekly, SKU-level sales estimates across key beauty retailers, including Sephora, Ulta and Amazon. This allows brands to track changes across products and categories on a weekly basis and use those insights to inform decisions around product development, pricing, promotions, inventory and marketing.

As makeup performance shifts, the differences between categories can be as important as the direction of the overall market. Foundation, mascara and lip are moving differently even within the same 13-week period. Having a weekly view of those changes gives brands a more current picture of where the market is moving and where opportunities may be emerging.